Sunday, September 25, 2011

Credit Crisis and its roots ...

If we were put things in perspective and chronologically enumerate the actions they would be like ..
• THE GLB Act of 1999 allowing commercial and investment banking to merge which in turn allowed risky investment vehicles to start running at full speed ( the birth of CDO and MBS)
• 2001 – 2002 Historically Low interest rates by FED to spur easy credit and interbank loans
• With all the above things and media promotion and an average Americans dream of owning a home which was construed as safe investment finally led to subprime crisis
• Finally when the bubble crashed ,t he excess inventory started showing up with home prices declining and inability to refinance led downward spiral with banks failures leading to liquidity crunch and high unemployment

Savings– In 1960 average American saved 11 % of paycheck , in 1990 decreased to 5 % and in 2003 fell to 2.5% but due to economic situation its increased to around 6%
Investment- 401K and IRA have been affected by the crisis but if we look at it from long term we have seen growth in this investment, The house which was supposed to be the safest of all has declined substantially Unemployment The drastic rise in this area averaging about 4% in Q1 2000 to 6% in 2003 and 9.1 % present is probably the biggest indicator of economic crisis and can be linked as directly proportional to savings and investment combined

Saturday, September 10, 2011

Presidents Job Plan

On the President’s address to nation last night .Let me know if I got this right?
Presidents latest job speech suggested many big items involving amounts to hundreds of billions, but there was a small item which proposes that companies will get 4000$ one time money to hire workers who are out of job for period of six months ( 8 billion $ div by 4000$ = 2 million jobs) . Now for low tech jobs this can be an impetus to hire but think about how an mid to big sized organization would behave (in fact this will work in any sized business if there was a back fill position and hiring is on for that position).But would a small business owner hire a new person pay him a salary, healthcare, etc (I am not even going on the length of employment) for this one time 4K
Corporate America is not very forgiving for people who are out of job(coming from personal experience as some of my family/friends are in job market) ,so my question is would the ethos of companies change for 4000$ ? The reason I am asking this question is for 2 million jobs to be created the big guns of the industries have to be a part of this equation and only small business would not alone work out.
Viewing this from our "supply and demand" lens if a new job created is the end product on demand axis and labor force on the supply axis, I think this "4K per new job created" capital injection will not be potent enough to move the equilibrium.
Your thoughts....

Thursday, September 1, 2011

Health Care Reforms

Obama Care means more people, including those with medical problems, could get all inclusive health coverage — (analyst say about 30 million more by 2013) which means demand increases drastically where as McCain’s plan would add about 4.5 million more . Looking at this issue from a pure supply and demand vision adding new members who can get coverage can be good for insurance business though the policy to insure people with preexisting conditions could drive the price up for everyone. Ideally more business should drive the insurance companies to get more customized health care plans at a lower cost rather than having pre cut plans which would does not suit everyone but we will have to see how the insurance sectors behaves this time.